Julio Teheran
Julio Teheran
28-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Narrative: Teheran can’t pitch at home. The real story is he struggles against LHB. The home/away splits have been a sample-size artifact, as evidenced by a similar season home and away in 2018. The root of Teheran’s woes is increasingly poor control facing LHB. The last three seasons, his walk rates facing LHB have been 8.3%, 12.8% and 17.5%. Predictably, Teheran’s strikeout rates are better versus RHB, though they hit him for more power. An important repercussion of the excessive walks versus LHB is having to work from the less-effective stretch more often. In 2018, Teheran was able to combat the walks with a luck-driven .217 BABIP. The last two seasons, all of Teheran’s expected ERAs cluster in the high-4’s so he’s vulnerable to regress there with a hit rate correction. Let someone else pay for last year’s good fortune. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a six-year, $32.5 million contract extension with the Braves in February of 2014. Contract includes $12 million team option ($1 million buyout) for 2020.
Falls shy of quality start
PAtlanta Braves
July 19, 2019
Teheran didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 4-3 win over the Nationals, giving up one run on four hits over 5.2 innings while striking out five.
After tossing five scoreless innings, the right-hander hit the showers after only 83 pitches (57 strikes) when he ran into trouble in the sixth, but Teheran was still in line for his sixth win of the year until Luke Jackson blew the save in the ninth. Teheran will take a 3.61 ERA and 102:52 K:BB through 112.1 innings into his next start Wednesday, at home against the Royals.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .230 1035 191 149 199 38 8 32
Since 2017vs Right .226 985 224 59 202 39 2 38
2019vs Left .241 221 49 28 45 8 1 4
2019vs Right .210 263 53 24 48 13 0 9
2018vs Left .208 367 65 64 62 11 3 11
2018vs Right .185 357 97 20 60 14 1 15
2017vs Left .241 447 77 57 92 19 4 17
2017vs Right .276 365 74 15 94 12 1 14
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
ERA on Road
ERA at Home
ERA on Road
ERA on Road
Since 2017Home 4.41 1.34 241.0 10 15 0 8.0 4.1 1.3
Since 2017Away 3.75 1.22 235.1 15 13 0 7.7 3.8 1.4
2019Home 2.54 1.29 49.2 3 2 0 8.5 3.8 0.9
2019Away 4.45 1.29 62.2 2 4 0 7.9 4.5 1.1
2018Home 3.96 1.22 97.2 4 3 0 8.7 4.4 1.1
2018Away 3.92 1.12 78.0 5 6 0 7.8 4.2 1.6
2017Home 5.86 1.49 93.2 3 10 0 7.0 3.8 1.6
2017Away 3.14 1.25 94.2 8 3 0 7.4 3.0 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Julio Teheran compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
89.8 mph
Left On Base
Exit Velocity
89.1 mph
Spin Rate
2336 rpm
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
Swinging Strike
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Defensive Stats
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Teheran was a massive disappointment in 2017, with his strikeout rate falling to 18.6 percent -- his lowest mark in a full season -- and his walk rate jumping to 8.9 percent (from 5.4 percent in 2016). Lefties were always a problem for him, but that was even more true last season, especially at his new home in SunTrust Park (.266/.386/.541, .391 wOBA). Perhaps most troubling was the fact that opposing right-handers -- against whom Teheran had historically had great success -- got to him for a .272/.313/.440 line, coinciding with a decline in the quality of his changeup. He's cheap now compared to where he was going in drafts last spring, but the home park combined with his flyball tendencies, the step back in performance and red flags in his underlying stats make Teheran a risky investment at any price point.
It was a strong rebound effort from Teheran in 2016. He found his control (his walk rate fell to 2013-14 levels) and with less traffic on the bases from free passes, he allowed fewer hits. All of it resulted in a season almost identical to 2014, complete with another All-Star appearance. His fastball works 91-93 mph, but he works it up in the zone which leverages effective velocity and makes it look more like 94-95 mph regularly. Teheran's biggest hurdle remains consistently thwarting lefties. He was awful in 2013, great in 2014, horrific in 2015, and then OK in 2016. It all comes down to the fastball, but it works so well against righties that it seems fixable versus lefties. Three good years out of four from a 26-year-old usually has their stock soaring, but Teheran remains eminently affordable. Slot him in as your third starter and enjoy the number-two upside.
Hearing a Teheran owner talk about his 2015 season, one might think he had a 10.00 ERA in 200 innings. It’s framed as a meltdown when it was just a tough season that further highlights the vagaries of pitching. If anything, it should make us appreciate the consistency of the studs even more. Teheran took his 33 turns, maintained his 2013-14 velocity levels, and missed bats at the same clip as 2014. However, his walk and home run rates spiked as lefties (310-point OPS platoon split) and the road (5.40 ERA) tanked his season. Every pitch regressed in swinging-strike rate against lefties and only three starting pitchers had a higher walk+homer rate (BB+HR/BF) than Teheran’s 15 percent (James Shields “led” the league at 17%). In 2013-14, Teheran was right at average (10%). It’s hard to pinpoint the “why” behind the struggles and there is no guarantee he fixes the issue, but it could just be youth and now his price is too low not to take a chance.
At 24, Teheran has already proven deserving of the ace of staff label in Atlanta. Injuries to Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy in spring training thrust Teheran into the role and the right-hander went on to turn in eight straight quality starts to begin the year, leading to a 2.71 ERA and .224 BAA in the first half of the season. Like many of his teammates, Teheran regressed after the All-Star break, but his strikeout and walk rates remained intact for the most part and he showed great durability, holding up to a 221-inning workload (third-most in NL). He went the distance four times, notching two shutouts and shaved nearly 10 points off his WHIP. Teheran did see his fastball drop in velocity yet again, losing more than a mile per hour off it from 2013, and his .267 BABIP suggests he may have slightly overachieved, but he's already a top-20 pitcher and there's still room to grow.
Teheran struggled mightily at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2012, leading to some second-guessing about his billing as one of the top young pitching prospects in the game. The Braves made Teheran earn the No. 5 starter job last spring, and the right-hander did just that, but he got off to a rough start to the regular season, with a 5.08 ERA in April. Things seemed to click shortly thereafter, as Teheran went on to post outstanding overall numbers as a 22-year-old rookie. While efficiency is an issue -- he made it out of the seventh inning just five times in 30 starts -- Teheran has great command of his pitches (2.2 BB/9) and will likely only get better as he learns how to further handle major league hitters. On the heels of his stellar campaign, Teheran is assured of a rotation spot this time around.
Teheran's detractors have pointed to his lack of a decent breaking pitch and too-straight fastball as reasons why he won’t succeed in a major league rotation. So far he has struggled when in the majors and he had an awful year in Triple-A in 2012, posting a 5.08 ERA and giving up an uncharacteristically high 1.2 HR/9. That was his second go-around in Triple-A and it is not uncommon for players repeating a level they previously dominated to struggle the second year. Teheran still has an amazing changeup and very good control, and was once a top-three pitching prospect for a reason. Don’t give up on him just yet.
Teheran may the top pitching prospect in baseball after having an outstanding season at Triple-A Gwinnett last year at just 20 years old (15-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 122:48 K:BB ratio in 144.2 innings). He wasn't as impressive in his five appearances in the majors (three starts) and his strikeout rate at Triple-A wasn't elite (7.6 K/9IP), but neither should be a major red flag given his young age and minor league track record. Teheran has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. He could win a spot in the Atlanta rotation this spring. Even if he begins the season at Triple-A, it won't be long before he's in the Atlanta rotation for the long term.
Teheran may be the best pitching prospect in baseball after moving up three levels and climbing to Double-A last season at age 19. He has a mid-90s fastball and plus changeup, along with a baseball IQ rare for his age. After posting a 1.17 ERA with a 45:10 K:BB ratio at Low-A Rome, he was even more impressive at High-A Myrtle Beach with a 2.98 ERA and 76:13 K:BB ratio in 63.1 innings that included striking out 14 batters in one game. He more than held his own as a 19-year-old at Double-A with a 3.38 ERA and 38:17 K:BB ratio in 40 innings. He'll likely begin the season at Double-A, but a trip to the majors in September isn't out of the question. He could be pitching at the top of Atlanta's rotation before 2013.
A 16-year old with a low-90s heater when he signed with the Braves, Teheran finally started to capitalize on his raw talent last season. He had a 2.68 ERA with a 39:7 K:BB ratio in 43.2 innings in rookie ball and then held his own as an 18-year-old at Low-A Rome with a 28:11 K:BB ratio in 37.2 innings. If he keeps throwing strikes with his low-90s fastball and excellent changeup, he could emerge as a top prospect in 2010.
Teheran's biggest asset is that he threw in the mid-90s as just a 17-year old in rookie ball last season. While his 6.60 ERA was ugly, the 17:4 K:BB ratio in 15 innings shows promise. He was limited to just six appearances due to shoulder issues, so his health is an unknown for 2009. He's pretty raw at this point, but a name to watch the next few years.
More Fantasy News
Likely to get pushed back
PAtlanta Braves
July 18, 2019
Teheran, who was initially listed as the probable starter for Thursday's series opener against the Nationals, is now expected to start Friday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
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Tosses quality start
PAtlanta Braves
July 13, 2019
Teheran allowed three runs (two earned) on three hits and walk over six innings. He struck out six and did not factor into the decision in Saturday's 7-5 win over the Padres.
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Shuts down Marlins in no-decision
PAtlanta Braves
July 6, 2019
Teheran didn't factor into the decision in Friday's 1-0 win over the Marlins, giving up five hits and two walks over six scoreless innings while striking out six.
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Settles for no-decision
PAtlanta Braves
June 29, 2019
Teheran gave up two runs on five hits and three walks while striking out four through 3.1 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Saturday.
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Hit hard in loss
PAtlanta Braves
June 24, 2019
Teheran (5-6) gave up seven runs on nine hits and three walks while striking out two through four innings to take the loss against the Cubs on Monday.
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