Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel
31-Year-Old PitcherSP
Atlanta Braves
2019 Fantasy Outlook
Keuchel was able to stay healthy and make a career-high 34 starts in 2018, but the skills took a hit. While the lefty was able to keep the walks in check, he lost roughly four percentage points from his K-rate (17.5%), and his groundball rate fell to 53.7% -- still well above average, but a far cry from the 66.8% mark he had in 2017. He was able to cut back on the homers despite that dip in groundball rate, but it's tough to bank on that trend continuing. As he enters his age-31 season and moves on from the Astros in free agency, Keuchel looks like he still has something in the tank, but the decline in the quality of his sinker, slider and changeup point to this being the beginning of the downward slope. This is a former AL Cy Young winner who has posted sub-3.00 ERAs in three of the past five seasons, but at this stage a low-4.00s ERA may be a more realistic expectation. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $13 million contract with the Braves in June of 2019.
Yields five runs in loss
PAtlanta Braves
July 17, 2019
Keuchel (3-3) allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits with two walks and five strikeouts across 5.2 innings while taking a loss against the Brewers on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
Unfortunately, this is a step in the wrong direction for Keuchel. Coming into the afternoon, he had won his previous two outings and three of his last four. Before Wednesday, Keuchel owned a 2.11 ERA over his last three appearances. This loss isn't too concerning, though, as the Brewers are a good offensive club playing in a hitter-friendly park. Keuchel has a 3.58 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 22 strikeouts in 37.2 innings this season. He will look to get back on track Tuesday at home against the Royals.
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-13%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-43%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-39%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .219 305 79 13 63 12 1 7
Since 2017vs Right .253 1313 221 104 302 59 4 32
2019vs Left .160 26 6 1 4 2 1 1
2019vs Right .283 134 16 11 34 3 3 5
2018vs Left .281 162 37 7 43 8 0 3
2018vs Right .259 712 116 51 168 40 1 15
2017vs Left .145 117 36 5 16 2 0 3
2017vs Right .236 467 89 42 100 16 0 12
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-13%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-41%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.15 1.13 183.0 11 10 0 6.6 2.6 0.7
Since 2017Away 3.64 1.35 205.0 18 9 0 7.2 2.8 1.1
2019Home 2.51 0.91 14.1 1 1 0 4.4 1.9 0.0
2019Away 4.24 1.59 23.1 2 2 0 5.8 3.5 2.3
2018Home 3.90 1.29 97.0 4 6 0 6.4 2.7 1.0
2018Away 3.59 1.34 107.2 8 5 0 7.0 2.4 0.6
2017Home 2.26 0.95 71.2 6 3 0 7.4 2.6 0.5
2017Away 3.53 1.28 74.0 8 2 0 8.0 3.2 1.3
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Stat Review
How does Dallas Keuchel compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against this season's data (min 70 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
1.83
 
K/9
5.3
 
BB/9
2.9
 
HR/9
1.4
 
Fastball
88.0 mph
 
ERA
3.58
 
WHIP
1.33
 
BABIP
.275
 
GB/FB
3.38
 
Left On Base
79.3%
 
Exit Velocity
88.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
6.5%
 
Spin Rate
1995 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
37.1%
 
Swinging Strike
8.7%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
At least according to FIP (3.87 in 2016, 3.79 in 2017), Keuchel wasn’t a dramatically different pitcher last season, but he noticed far better results than the year prior. For the third time in four seasons, Keuchel finished with a sub-3.00 ERA while adding to his value with a 1.12 WHIP and 14 wins. The impact of those numbers was somewhat dampened by Keuchel missing most of June and July while recovering from a neck issue, and after a brilliant first half, he was far less productive after the break, managing only a 4.24 ERA and 1.39 WHIP across 70 frames. With a fastball that tops out in the high 80s, Keuchel will never be the strikeout-per-inning pitcher that typifies most aces, but his ability to generate ample groundballs and avoid damage via the long ball are skills that have routinely helped him outperform his peripherals. Moreover, with a power-packed offense backing him again, Keuchel’s path to wins will be more favorable than most other starters of his caliber.
The league adjusted to the 2015 Cy Young winner in a big way (4.80 ERA, 2.8 K/BB first half) and while he started to adjust back in the second half (3.94 ERA, 3.6 K/BB), he then lost the final month of the season to a shoulder injury. The major change was that the opposition started swinging less often at Keuchel's pitches out of the zone, which forced him back into the zone in hitter-friendly or even counts. Additionally, his OPS-against on plate appearances ending out of the zone skyrocketed from a league-best .339 in 2015 to .530 last year -- or slightly better than the .579 average (min. 150 IP). Each one of his pitches performed worse, too, but especially his "hard" stuff. The fastball and cutter combined for an .837 OPS, up from .669 in 2015. He was cleared to resume throwing this offseason and should enter camp healthy. Keuchel is definitely far from his 2015 peak, but he's better than his 2016 bottom line. Don't pay for more than high-3.00s ERA.
Keuchel proved just how dominant of a pitcher he can be last season, especially when inside the confines of Minute Maid Park. The AL Cy Young Award finalist was a perfect 15-0 at home en route a 20-8 record overall, with a 2.48 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 216:51 K:BB ratio over a career-high 232 innings. His groundball rate (2.29 GO/AO) was second-best in the majors and he once again led all pitchers in assists (53) to win the AL Gold Glove award for the second consecutive year. Keuchel has clearly established himself as a reliable fantasy ace who is worth drafting among the top-10 starters in all formats.
After two straight seasons with an ERA above five, Keuchel came out of nowhere to establish himself as a premier pitcher in 2014. The left-hander reached 200 innings exactly, going 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and leading the AL with five complete games. His groundball rate (2.83 GO/AO) was the best in the majors by far and he led all pitchers in total chances (66) and assists (47) to win the AL Gold Glove award. Keuchel's 3.21 FIP indicates his success was no fluke, and his remarkable season puts him in line to start Opening Day for the Astros in 2015.
Keuchel didn't make the Astros' roster out of camp, but he saw significant time in the majors last season due to injuries/ineffectiveness of other pitchers. In 153.2 innings (22 starts), the 26-year-old lefty compiled a 6-10 record with a 5.15 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Those numbers are nothing to write home about, but Keuchel significantly improved his strikeout rate (7.2 K/9) and walk rate (3.1 BB/9) over the year prior. The extreme groundballer (2.07 GO/AO) will have to battle for a spot in the starting rotation out of camp, but will likely make the roster in some capacity, be it as a starter or long reliever.
Keuchel finished 2012 with a 3-8 record and a brutal 5.27 ERA. He is not going to blow anyone away, and without an out pitch to speak of (last year he struck out just 4.0 K/9), his pitch-to-contact approach has to keep the ball on the ground to be effective. The Astros would like to see him get a little bigger and stronger, and hope he will be able to establish his sinker more by taking a few miles-per-hour off of it to allow for more movement. He will have a lot to prove this spring, but has likely shown enough to break camp with the team.
More Fantasy News
Strong in win
PAtlanta Braves
July 12, 2019
Keuchel (3-2) picked up the win Friday after holding the Padres to one run on six hits and four walks while striking out five through seven innings.
ANALYSIS
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Strong in win
PAtlanta Braves
July 7, 2019
Keuchel (2-2) gave up two runs on five hits and one walk while striking out four through 7.1 innings to take the win over the Marlins on Sunday.
ANALYSIS
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Dealt tough loss
PAtlanta Braves
July 2, 2019
Keuchel (1-2) took the loss Tuesday against the Phillies after giving up two runs on five hits across seven innings. He had three strikeouts and two walks.
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Gives up three runs in win
PAtlanta Braves
June 26, 2019
Keuchel (1-1) gave up three runs on four hits and three walks while striking out two through 5.2 innings to take the win over the Cubs on Wednesday.
ANALYSIS
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Yields four runs in debut
PAtlanta Braves
June 21, 2019
Keuchel (0-1) allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits with three strikeouts and no walks across five innings while taking a loss during his 2019 major league debut against the Nationals on Friday.
ANALYSIS
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