Luis Severino
Luis Severino
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 8/15/2021
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Dreams of a Gerrit Cole-Severino 1-2 punch atop the Yankees' rotation were shattered last February when Severino was diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. It was a brutal blow for the young right-hander, who made only three regular-season appearances in 2019 due to lat and shoulder issues. Prior to the run of injuries, Severino was emerging as one of the game's most promising hurlers, winning 33 games and registering a 3.18 ERA between 2017 and 2018. Plenty of pitchers have gone on to find success after TJ surgery, so there's no reason to rule out a return to form for Severino, though there's bound to be some rust -- and a strict innings limit -- upon his eventual return. Severino isn't expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation until well after the start of the regular season, further capping his 2021 value. He may not be a viable option in fantasy leagues until 2022. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
#434
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Another live BP on tap
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 22, 2021
Severino (elbow) is scheduled to throw a live batting practice session this weekend and could begin a minor-league rehab assignment by the middle of next week, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Severino emerged from Sunday's 30-pitch live batting practice session without incident and completed a bullpen session Thursday as he continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander was expected to return from the injured list earlier in the season, but a Grade 2 groin strain suffered in mid-June resulted in a brief shutdown that pushed back the timeline for his 2021 debut. At this point, Severino is in the process of ramping up again, and he'll likely need at least three rehab outings in the minors to build up his pitch count for starting duty. He could be ready to pitch for the Yankees at some point in mid-to-late August.
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Pitching Stats
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2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2021
No Stats
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2019vs Left .148 32 12 4 4 1 0 0
Since 2019vs Right .143 16 5 2 2 0 0 0
2021vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .148 32 12 4 4 1 0 0
2019vs Right .143 16 5 2 2 0 0 0
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2021
No Stats
2020
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2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2019Home 0.00 0.78 9.0 1 0 0 13.0 2.0 0.0
Since 2019Away 6.00 1.67 3.0 0 1 0 12.0 12.0 0.0
2021Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2021Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 0.00 0.78 9.0 1 0 0 13.0 2.0 0.0
2019Away 6.00 1.67 3.0 0 1 0 12.0 12.0 0.0
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
Mound Musings: Help Is on the Way?
2 days ago
Brad Johnson writes about the Futures Game, where promising young pitchers like the Rays’ Shane Baz were showcased, and Johnson provides a brief update on a handful injured pitchers.
MLB FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
9 days ago
Jason Shebilske analyzes the top waiver-wire pickups for the week, including the Mariners' Jarred Kelenic, who is headed back to the majors.
AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
13 days ago
Erik Siegrist reviews the American League player pool heading into the All-Star break and notes that some big-name talent, such as Luis Severino, is set to get healthy in the coming weeks.
MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers
40 days ago
Erik Halterman takes a look at this week's risers and fallers, leading off with Vladimir Guerrero, who's leading the league with 21 homers and sits tied for second with a .344 average.
Bernie on the Scene: Starting Pitcher Trade Targets
68 days ago
Bernie Pleskoff analyzes starting pitchers worth trading for, including Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces.
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Checks out well during sim game
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 18, 2021
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Severino (elbow) fared well Sunday during a 30-pitch outing against live hitters, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Progressing toward live hitters
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 11, 2021
Severino (elbow) tossed a couple bullpen sessions within the last week and his next step will be facing live hitters, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tosses another bullpen
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 8, 2021
Severino (elbow/groin) threw another bullpen Wednesday, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws off mound Saturday
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 3, 2021
Severino (elbow/groin) threw off a bullpen mound Saturday, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.
ANALYSIS
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Close to resuming mound work
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
July 2, 2021
Severino (elbow/groin) could return to throwing from a mound by July 4, MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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