This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
Wall is coming off a knee injury, so there's some risk here. But the number is good. Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo are out for the Rockets, and with those two off the court, Wall averages 27.7 points on 23.2 shots per 36 minutes. Again, with Wood and Oladipo off the court, Gordon sees an uptick in usage just like Wall. In that scenario, Gordon averages 5.3 assists per 36 minutes. We're getting 2.5 assists at +145 here, which is amazing value.
Devin Booker is out for the Suns, so there's value to be had on the Suns. Johnson thrives with Booker (and Dario Saric) off the court, averaging 23.0 points on 17.5 shots per 36 minutes. Under those same conditions, Ayton is averaging 19.2 points on 15.5 shots. Without Booker, I expect Chris Paul and Ayton to run more pick-and-roll, as well as some more post-ups for Ayton.
Wendell Carter and Otto Porter are out for the Bulls, and the numbers are favorable for LaVine and Markkanen when that pair is sidelined. Per 36 minutes, LaVine averages 34.7 points and 8.6 assists per 36 minutes with Carter and Porter off the court, while Markkanen averages 31.0 points. The matchup is tough, but I still think there's value.
Zion Williamson over 24.5 points (-121) vs. Timberwolves – DraftKings
The Timberwolves are in a rough way, missing both Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell for this one. They allow 116.2 points per game (fifth-most), and Williamson should be able to thrive against the beat-up and weak frontcourt. There's just nobody on the Wolves that can match Williamson's athleticism. Over his past eight appearances, Williamson is averaging 26.4 points.