FanDuel NBA: Wednesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Wednesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Wednesday's 10-game slate features some high-profile absences and a lot of other exploitable options to choose from.  Large slates like this favor a multi-lineup approach in GPP contests that correlate well with your bankroll, so whether you're firing 25-cent plays or $10 multi-entries, it's an excellent night to load up several lineups.

SLATE OVERVIEW

(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)

Games to Target in BOLD, Games to Fade in ITALIC

IND @ CLE (+6) O/U: 217

UTA @ PHI (+3) O/U: 227.5

DET @ TOR (-7.5) O/U: 214.5

BKN @ HOU (+8) O/U: 226.5

ATL @ ORL (+4) O/U: 223.5

CHI @ NO (-6.5) O/U: 237.5

CHA @ MIN (+0.5) O/U: 229.5

OKC @ DAL (-6) O/U: 223.5

GSW @ POR (+1) O/U: 235.5

LAL @ SAC (-3.5) O/U: 226.5

Slates of this size can be overwhelming, and it can be tough to provide a complete assessment of the slate in one article. To be unique, I'll be using a wide array of players that won't be mentioned here – to say them all would make for an un-readable column. That is why looking at the targets and fades above is so important. To dig for more options, I've given you a guide to rosters you should look at closely before lock, and also teams to avoid

INJURY REPORT

PHI Tobias Harris (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

Even if Harris returns, he'll likely be on a minute restriction. Danny Green ($4,300) and Furkan Korkmaz ($3,800) are good plays in this spot, and a little bit of Mike Scott ($3,700) could be worthwhile as well.

IND Doug McDermott (teeth) - QUESTIONABLE

McDermott could probably play with this injury, and there isn't anyone who gets a significant boost in his absence.

CLE Andre Drummond (inactive) - OUT

CLE Kevin Love (calf) - OUT

CLE Larry Nance (finger) - OUT

CLE Taurean Prince (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

Jarrett Allen ($8,300) projects reasonably well against the Pacers, and JaVale McGee ($3,900) could beat value at this salary as well.

DET Jerami Grant (quad) - QUESTIONABLE

DET Delon Wright (groin) - OUT

The Pistons will be compromised severely if their top producer is sidelined. Saddiq Bey's ($5,100) price continues to rise in a starting role, but he would get a boost if Grant can't make it.  Josh Jackson ($5,600) could also be worthwhile in this spot. Dennis Smith ($5,500) will continue to start in Wright's absence, and if this game goes off, I like his chances against the depleted Raptors.

TOR Fred VanVleet (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

TOR Pascal Siakam (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

TOR OG Anunoby (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

We'll save a couple of the pivots for later in the article, but Terence Davis ($3,500) and DeAndre' Bembry ($3,800) are two budget options that could help out costs significantly tonight. With VanVleet out, Norman Powell ($6,800) will draw the start and post a good number.  As previously stated, this game has the highest scratch possibility on the slate, so be sure to look at the starting lineup before loading up with Toronto and Detroit.

BKN Kevin Durant (hamstring) - OUT

BKN Jeff Green (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE

BKN Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (knee) - DOUBTFUL

DeAndre Jordan ($5,100) is a worthwhile consideration in this spot, as are Joe Harris ($4,800) and Bruce Brown ($5,300).

HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT

HOU Eric Gordon (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

HOU Danuel House (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

HOU David Nwaba (wrist) - OUT

A look at the Rockets' starting lineup will be necessary to zero in on appropriate pivots here.

CHA Devonte' Graham (knee) - OUT

CHA Gordon Hayward (hand) - QUESTIONABLE

CHA Cody Zeller (hip) - QUESTIONABLE

We can address a couple of backcourt options a bit later, but P.J. Washington ($5,800) has tremendous upside if Zeller continues to sit.  If Hayward can't go, pivot over to Miles Bridges ($4,900).

MIN Malik Beasley (suspension) - OUT

MIN D'Angelo Russell (knee) - OUT

Anthony Edwards ($6,400) is an excellent call against the Hornets.

DAL Luka Doncic (back) - QUESTIONABLE

Doncic tends to play through injuries like this, but a late scratch would result in substantial value adjustments for Dallas. A lot of pressure would undoubtedly fall on Kristaps Porzingis ($7,800), who is already a great FanDuel play due to his PF eligibility.  Tim Hardaway ($4,300) and Jalen Brunson ($5,200) would also be called upon if Doncic were to sit.

LeBron James (ankle) - OUT

Anthony Davis (Achilles) - OUT

Kyle Kuzma (heel) - QUESTIONABLE

Marc Gasol (COVID -19 protocols) - QUESTIONABLE

Alex Caruso (neck) - QUESTIONABLE

Expect the Lakers to be exceptionally terrible against the Kings tonight. Dennis Schroder ($5,500) will handle a more prominent backcourt role in LeBron's absence, and Montrezl Harrell ($6,400) will address a lot of deficiencies in the frontcourt. A boost for Markieff Morris ($4,000) will be warranted if Kuzma is a scratch again.

ELITE PLAYERS

In what is probably the season's biggest revenge game, James Harden ($11,200) will go back home to Houston to play his former team.  As the most expensive player on the slate, Harden is a salary siphoner but totally worthy of addition. As usual, it's tempting to find Brooklyn production at a lower price with Kyrie Irving ($9,100), but the intangibles here certainly favor Harden. The rest of the 10k range is OK but not spectacular.  Joel Embiid ($10,400) has the best chance to beat value at his salary against Utah. Less likely to achieve that milestone is Damian Lillard ($10,100). It's now been four straight games where Lillard has failed to meet 5x value. Obviously, Luka Doncic ($10,600) is a huge wildcard due to his injury tag, so he's another elite that is probably worthy of a fade until more is known about his status.

There's a lot more to like in the 9k range. Nikola Vucevic ($9,900) is one of the best centers on the slate against the Hawks, but you can just as easily pivot to Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700), who I would favor if Cody Zeller continues his absence. Stephen Curry ($9,900) should fare well against Portland's defense, and he's very well rested after only playing 26 minutes in their last game against the Lakers. It could also be time for Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) to bounce back with a good number against the Cavs. 

EXPECTED CHALK

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,600) @ MIN

Ball continues to be worth every penny as his stat lines are bursting at this seams. He put up 44 FP in his last outing against the T-Wolves, and he'll need a slightly higher number this time around to get 5x value for his cost. It's certainly doable as Minnesota continues to play without their starting backcourt.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($8,200) @ DAL

The Mavericks become an exploitable spot for SGA if Doncic can't play.  He'd face a slightly stiffer defensive challenge with Luka in the lineup, but the talented guard would come close to lock territory if Doncic missed. That being said, Gilgeous-Alexander has been almost matchup-proof of late. He's averaged over 40 FP per game over the past four contests and possesses the upside to go well above those numbers nightly.

Brandon Ingram, NO ($7,800) vs. CHI

Ingram's salary is almost comical in tonight's game against the Bulls. He produces equally alongside Zion Williamson ($8,900) for $1,100 less, and at this salary point, Ingram will be exceedingly popular today.  He's right at a 40 FP average over his past four contests.

Collin Sexton, CLE ($7,600) vs. IND

Sexton is running red-hot right now, and I think he's a slightly better option than De'Aaron Fox ($8,000), who could find himself off the floor if they build a big lead against the Lakers.  Sexton's numbers continue to trend up, culminating in a 39-point explosion against Houston. The Pacers are a tougher defensive test, but the Cavs offense will flow through and out of Sexton, giving him monstrous usage totals and plenty of opportunities.

Also consider: Kelly Oubre, GS ($7,400) @ POR, Lonzo Ball, NO ($6,900) vs. CHI, Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,800) vs. LAL

VALUE PLAYS

If Toronto suits up, we will see a lot of value flowing through this roster, and we've already identified three decent pivots. Chris Boucher ($6,600) should be in great shape without Siakam on the floor.

As usual, you'll find most of the exceptional value options in the injury section, but there are also plenty of low-cost alternatives on this massive slate.

Enes Kanter, POR ($6,300) vs. GS

Although the Warriors are once again healthy inside, they will face an uphill battle against Kanter, who can dominate a game in the right set of circumstances.  He's delivered four double-doubles in his last five games and is set up well for another big rebound number in this matchup.

Marvin Bagley, SAC ($6,200) vs. LAL

It's hard to argue with an endorsement for Bagley, who's played exceptionally well recently. He's coming off a huge 45-FP outing against Charlotte, and as long as his minutes stay above the 30-minute range, he should enjoy a productive night against the injury-riddled Lakers.

Justin Holiday, IND ($4,600) @ CLE

Holiday isn't expected to be very popular on this slate, but he's beating value on a fairly consistent basis and could post a significant number against Cleveland. His usage has shot up recently, and that's resulted in a noticeable uptick in shot volume. If he can manage decent secondary numbers, the shot-dependent small forward could deliver in this spot.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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