FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Saturday's 10-game slate tips off at 7:00 p.m.ET. You'll need to keep your ear close to the ground in the meantime, as several teams have game-time decisions for some of their best players.  Let's begin with the current Sportsbook figures.

SLATE OVERVIEW

(Odds and lines are best available US numbers and are subject to change)

Games to Target in BOLD

Games to FAde in ITALIC

DET @ CHA (-6.5) O/U: 214.5

GSW @ HOU (+8) O/U: 234

CHI @ ATL (-5) O/U: 211

MIA @ CLE (+11.5) O/U: 209

MEM @ ORL (+11.5) O/U: 224.5

IND @ OKC (+6.5) O/U: 225.5

NOR @ MiN (+4) O/U: 234.5

WAS @ DAL (-5.5) O/U: 231.5

DEN @ LAC (-4.5) O/U: 224

TOR @ UTA.(-7.5) O/U: 223

INJURIES

DET Jerami Grant (knee) - OUT

DET Mason Plumlee (rest) - OUT

DET Cory Joseph (ankle) - OUT

DET Hamidou Diallo (knee) - DOUBTFUL

DET Wayne Ellington (calf) - OUT

DET Jahlil Okafor (undisclosed) - OUT

Isaiah Stewart ($5,900) is the best value pivot here. Despite the inherent value of the center spot and the wide assortment of options, Stewart's usage will be high with both Plumlee and Okafor off the floor, and it's enough to consider him a core center tonight. Other places where you can't go wrong include Frank Jackson ($3,900), Killian Hayes ($3,900) and Saddiq Bey ($5,000). Josh Jackson ($5,400) struggled a bit against Dallas, but that was largely due to only five shot attempts. If he can get that number back up to double digits, I have no problem going in that direction. With so few big men available, a true punt play could be Tyler Cook ($3,500), who is at the minimum price with a PF designation.

CHA LaMelo Ball (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE

CHA Gordon Hayward (foot) - OUT

Ball is the big variable tonight. If he plays, his workload will assuredly be capped, but it will impact guard value for Charlotte nonetheless. If he doesn't play at all, Devonte' Graham ($6,200) is playing massive minutes and pacing the team regularly lately. He could still be extremely valuable if Ball only plays for 20 minutes. Miles Bridges ($7,100) and P.J. Washington ($7,000) continue to hold their value amidst Hayward's absence.

GSW Draymond Green (trapezius) - QUESTIONABLE

GSW Kelly Oubre (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE

If Oubre plays, he'll probably do so from the bench, so Kent Bazemore ($5,400) is still usable. An absence from Green would deliver more usage to Juan Toscano-Anderson ($3,700).

HOU - Various absences

There are a lot of absences on the slate, but they aren't worth mentioning individually.  What IS worth considering is the team's extremely tight rotation. They will probably run with eight guys at the most, so despite your own biases about them, those involved will get 35-40 minutes. We'll identify our favorites a bit later.

CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT

CHI Lauri Markkanen (illness) - OUT

LaVine continues to be out, so Coby White ($6,200) will remain a safe play. Daniel Theis ($5,300) should get a small boost with Markkanen out.

ATL Bogdan Bogdanovic (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE

ATL Kevin Huerter (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE

There's not much to be excited about here except for the Atlanta elites, which we'll get to in a moment.

MIA Tyler Herro (foot) - OUT

The team has Kendrick Nunn ($5,500), but this game against Cleveland holds very little interest fantasy-wise. With slates this size, it's sometimes sensible to write off one game.  

CLE Darius Garland (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

The return of Collin Sexton ($8,200) is of interest, but his salary is entirely too expensive for a player coming off an injury.

ORL Terrence Ross (back) - QUESTIONABLE

ORL  Chuma Okeke (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

If both of these players are out, I will refer to the starters, but Moritz Wagner ($3,500) logged 28 minutes Friday and is worth a deep tournament punt play.

IND Domantas Sabonis (back) -QUESTIONABLE

IND Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring)  QUESTIONABLE

IND Myles Turner (toe) - OUT

IND Goga Bitadze (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

IND JaKarr Sampson (concussion) - OUT

This team is a DFS mess. The inclusion of Sabonis, Bitadze or Brogdon would have huge implications on a profitable route.  The only player that's safe in my book is Oshae Brissett ($7,000), but we would definitely see more of T.J. McConnell ($5,400) if Brogdon sat. The Pacers play at 8 p.m. ET, so there are still a few games ahead of them. Looking at the confirmed lineup and swapping against the later matchups is a wise move.

OKC Luguentz Dort (hip) - OUT

OKC Kenrich Williams - DECREASED USAGE

I would trust the team's words about Williams, so leave him out of your builds. Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,800) stands to see increased time in Dort's absence.

NOR Steven Adams (toe) - OUT

Willy Hernangomez ($4,700) will start once again and is a great budget option for the center slot tonight, although he will have Karl-Anthony Towns to deal with.

DAL Kristaps Porzingis (knee) - QUESTIONABLE

If you want to monitor Porzingis and make a stellar prediction on who coach Rick Carlisle might go with instead, knock yourself out. Carlisle has replaced Gregg Popovich as the league's most frustrating coach for DFS and season-long fantasy players alike. It's safer to steer clear unless Porzingis gets a green light.

LAC Kawhi Leonard (foot) - QUESTIONABLE

We will have to wait and see about Leonard, but Paul George ($9,400) is the obvious pivot if Kawhi is out. Marcus Morris ($6,300) sees a boost of approximately six percent when Leonard is off the floor, making him my preferred pivot in Leonard's absence.

TOR Kyle Lowry (rest) - OUT

TOR Chris Boucher (knee) - OUT

TOR Gary Trent (leg) - OUT

Malachi Flynn ($4,700) will start for Lowry, while  Khem Birch ($6,000) and OG Anunoby ($7,200) will see increases in place of Boucher and Trent, respectively.

Donovan Mitchell (ankle) - OUT

Mike Conley (hamstring) - OUT

We'll roll out Jordan Clarkson ($6,500) and Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900) right away as backcourt pivots.

ELITE PLAYERS

Amazingly, we only have three 10k-plus players on the 10-game slate. Russell Westbrook ($11,000) continues to be a nightly triple-double threat, and the 229 game total against the Mavericks looks like another standout game could be in store. The Wizards are coming off a back-to-back, but there will be no time for rest with the play-in game within reach. Luka Doncic ($10,800) is on the other end of this matchup, and one should expect the All-Star to work more magic off the ball than as the primary ball distributor. His role varies depending on the matchup, and the interior is where Washington is at its weakest. Both of these guys are worth medium exposure tonight. The final 10k player is Nikola Jokic ($10,900), who will face off against a Clipper team that may be without Kawhi Leonard. Standout performances from his teammates have compromised his output a bit, but he's actually a bit of a bargain at under 11k.

We'll find many targets in the 9k range, and I once again am a big fan of Stephen Curry ($9,700). This could be one of the last nights I go with Curry if they lose because I fear he may become the victim of the inevitable scratches that occur when a team is out of playoff contention. Right now, he'll be playing with all cylinders humming against the Rockets. Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,200) should be able to feast against Willy Henangomez, making him a close second to Curry in this range. The game total for the ATL/CHI doesn't give me too much interest in Trae Young ($9,500) and Nikola Vucevic ($9,000), but they will get a little bit of love in MME builds.

EXPECTED CHALK

Zion Williamson, NO ($8,900) @ MIN 

You can't get any chalkier than Zion, especially when his salary is below 9k. His sole game against the Timberwolves wasn't one of his best, but the All-Star has become almost matchup-proof for the Pelicans. Over his past 10 games, he has beaten 5x value for tonight's salary 50 percent of the time.

Christian Wood ($8,700), HOU vs. GSW 

As mentioned earlier, the Rockets starters will log enormous minutes, and Wood is in a very similar situation to Towns. He's playing a weak Golden State frontcourt that could lack the defensive talents of Draymond Green, and the real bonus is Wood's PF designation. Inserting Wood allows for an extremely favorable two-center setup.

Michael Porter, DEN ($8,300) @ LAC

No recent chalk section would be complete without mentioning Porter. Simply put, he's playing at such a high level that it's almost comical that he isn't more expensive. He's had a day to rest his ankle, and he is going to be extremely popular, especially if Leonard sits for the Clippers. Until we see Porter at 9k or above, it's foolish not to fire him up in multiple lineups.

Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,900) vs. TOR

Even on a back-to-back, Gobert is entirely too cheap to ignore. He should have no problem dominating against Khem Birch, and although Toronto's scheme is very different now, he notched a couple-double against the Raptors in their last matchup. They didn't have to travel far to get home for this back-to-back, so I think Gobert will be ready to go.

Lonzo Ball, NO ($7,000) @ MIN

I nailed Ball as a fade in Thursday's article, as the numbers were clear on his back-to-back performances.  Conversely, he's been playing lights out after days of rest, so we'll go back to the well in an attempt to cash in on Ball's ridiculous run of stuffed stat lines. While the Timberwolves are highlight-reel worthy in the backcourt, they rank as one of the league's worst against opposing point guards.  It's a green light for Lonzo tonight.

Also consider: Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,400) @ UTA, Jonas Valanciunas, MEM ($6,600) @ ORL

VALUE PLAYS

The injury section holds our most important value adds, but here are a few more budget considerations to target this evening.

Kevin Porter, HOU ($6,100) vs. GSW

It's highly doubtful that we'll see a repeat of Friday's incredible 50-point game, but as previously stated, these Houston starters are in line for upward of 40 minutes, and this Golden State game has one of the highest game totals on the slate. The slate definitely leans toward involving one lower-priced point guard, and Porter should be near the top of your list.

Again, refer to the injury section, where I like Stewart, Flynn, and Bogdanovic. There will be additional value to be found once Indiana and Los Angeles' lineups are confirmed. Here is a short list of additional players to fill out your lineups.

PF Aleksej Pokusevski, OKC ($4,100) vs. IND

PG Cole Anthony, ORL ($6,000) vs. MEM

PG Facundo Campazzo, DEN ($5,000) @ LAC

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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