FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a seven-game evening slate featuring five games with spreads no greater than 7.5 points. The two contests projected as potential blowouts unsurprisingly feature two of the weaker sides versus two of the Western Conference's elite. Injuries don't shape up as a major factor, though there are a couple of big names who'll be sitting out.

Slate Overview

Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic (O/U: TBD) 

Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings (O/U: TBD) 

Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards (O/U: TBD) 

Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (O/U: 209.0 points) 

San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 211.0 points) 

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (O/U: 220.0 points) 

Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (O/U: 223.5 points) 

A number of games are still missing their projected totals as of early Sunday, with arguably the most intriguing of those a Pacers-Kings tilt that could turn into a high-scoring affair. Both squads are ranked right next to each other in the bottom-10 when it comes to points per game allowed and also play at top-10 paces.

The highest potential for a lopsided outcome resides in the Jazz-Magic and Rockets-Warriors matchups, and the fact Houston is on the second game of a back-to-back certainly doesn't help their chances. Utah will also be playing for a second consecutive night after a narrow loss to the Heat, but the Jazz are still comfortable road favorites.

The Bucks-Wizards and Hornets-Clippers battles carry plenty of star power, and each features an underachieving 2020-21 playoff contender looking to turn it around after inconsistent starts to their respective seasons. 

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following is a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Malcolm Brogdon, IND (illness)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Brogdon were to sit, T.J. McConnell would be primed for a spot start at point guard while the usage of the remaining members of the starting five would see a bump. 

Khris Middleton, MIL (COVID-19 protocols/ Status: OUT 

Pat Connaughton should draw another start in Middleton's ongoing absence while Jordan Nwora should also see some extra run off the bench. Additionally, Giannis Antetokounmpo's usage should get a bump from its already elevated level.

Cole Anthony, ORL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Anthony doesn't play, R.J. Hampton would be in line for a start at point guard. 

Jakob Poeltl, SAN (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

In Poeltl's ongoing absence, Drew Eubanks is likely to draw another start at center while Thaddeus Young should keep receiving an elevated role off the bench. 

Other notable injuries: 

Brook Lopez, MIL (back)/ Status: OUT 

Grayson Allen, MIL (illness)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Lauri Markkanen, CLE (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Kevin Love, CLE (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Mason Plumlee, CHA (ribs)/ Status: PROBABLE 

P.J. Washington, CHA (elbow)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Marcus Morris, LAC (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Jeremy Lamb, IND (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Davis Bertans, WAS (ankle)/ Status: OUT  

Elite Players

We have three players with five-figure salaries on Sunday's slate – Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300), Paul George ($10,800) and Stephen Curry ($10,000)

Giannis will once again be taking the floor without Khris Middleton, and he's coming in having scored 42.4 to 60.1 FD points in the three contests without his star teammate.

George continues to exhibit massive usage each time he takes the floor and has scored between 46.2 and 61.3 FD points in his last four. The matchup against the Hornets lines up well considering they give up the most points per game (117.4) while also playing at the league's fifth-highest pace (105.7 possessions per game).

Curry also faces a favorable matchup against the Rockets, who have allowed the fourth-most points per game (112.1). However, he does arrive in the midst of a shooting slump having only drained 39.1 percent of his attempts over his last three appearances.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the players just mentioned in the previous section, other likely chalk plays include:

Dejounte Murray, SAN ($9,500) 

Murray has dropped over 50 FD points in each of his last two games and has been over 40 FD on four other occasions. His matchup against the Thunder is also premium, which could keep him on many rosters.

Julius Randle, NYK ($9,300) 

Randle just exploded for 55.4 FD points across 33 minutes against the Bucks on Friday and is averaging 46.1 FD points for the season, which will continue to keep him extremely popular.

LaMelo Ball, CHA ($8,600) 

Ball has scored between 40 and 56.4 FD points across his last four outings and is playing in the contest with the current highest projected total of the night, which would make him heavily rostered.

Key Values 

Keldon Johnson, SAN at OKC ($5,700)

Johnson has scored over 30 FD points in two of his last four games and is averaging 27.6 FD points overall while putting up at least 14 shot attempts in five contests. The Thunder are also struggling defending frontcourt players having allowed the second-highest offensive efficiency to power forwards (30.6 percent), which also puts teammate Thaddeus Young ($4,600) (see below) very much in play. It's also worth noting the Thunder is giving up the highest offensive efficiency in the paint (67.9) while Johnson is logging 62.9 percent of his points in that part of the floor this season. 

Bojan Bogdanovic, UTA at ORL ($5,500) 

Bogdanovic has overdelivered on his current salary in his last two appearances with 33 and 28 FD points. The veteran wing is facing a Magic team allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to small forwards (25.7 percent) along with the third-highest three-point shooting percentage of any team on its home floor (38.6 percent). Bogdanovic naturally has the ability to take advantage of the latter figure and should deliver handsomely on his modest salary if he gets hot.

Ivica Zubac, LAC vs. CHA ($4,600) 

Zubac is coming off a 14-point, 14-rebound double-double against the Timberwolves on Friday that netted 34.8 FD points, a season high for the big man. He also posted 25.2 FD points in the previous outings and has been over 20 in six of eight. The matchup versus the Hornets is tantalizing as they are ranked in the NBA's bottom half in offensive efficiency allowed to centers (32.6 percent) and are also giving up the second-highest offensive efficiency in the paint (63.7 percent). Moreover, Charlotte has yielded the ninth-most rebounds per game (56.2), setting Zubac up with several paths to fantasy success.

ALSO CONSIDER: Thaddeus Young, SAN at OKC ($4,600) 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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