This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
Week 13 Main Slate Breakdown
Welcome to this week's breakdown for the DraftKings main slate. It features 11 games and there are six teams with implied totals of 35-or-more points and three of those teams are checking in with IT's over 40.0.
The Egg Bowl between Mississippi and Mississippi State offers the best combo of high total and a spread that suggests a competitive matchup while Ohio State's 49.75 implied total does most of the heavy lifting on the 71.5 over/under.
Other games and sides I've got my eye on are Indiana-Maryland, Michigan-Penn State, Florida, Louisville, and North Carolina State.
Below you'll find our suite of DFS tools along with matchup info and a position-by-position breakdown.
- DraftKings Lineup Optimizer
- NEW Matchups Page (Vegas odds, opponent averages, etc.)
- Advanced Lineups Page
- Team Trends
- Defense vs. Position
- Team Rankings
Will Rogers, Mississippi State ($6,000) at Mississippi
We're working under the assumption that Rogers will get another start with K.J. Costello (concussion protocol) likely in line for another absence.
The issue with Mississippi State's offense this season has been efficiency. The Bulldogs lead the nation in both passing play percentage and pass attempts per game, but a combined 5.7 YPA puts them near the bottom in that metric.
Rogers looked to turn a corner in last week's start against Georgia, however. He completed 78 percent of his 52 passes at 6.5 YPA. Even if Rogers isn't completing chunk plays, there's enough volume to help him challenge for that 300-yard bonus. Then there's the added wrinkle of facing the worst pass defense on the slate. Plus, Rogers is cheap enough to make him a viable game-stack option opposite Matt Corral.
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson ($9,000) at Pittsburgh
Lawrence is infallible any time he's playing, but this is an especially good week to back him in DFS. He's coming off the long layoff and Clemson is ready to take out its frustrations on the Panthers.
On the surface, Pitt appears to have a good pass defense. It allows just 224 passing yards per game on 7.0 YPA – both of which are strong marks. But the big plays have been a problem for the Panthers. They have allowed 22 pass plays over 25 yards, which is tied for the seventh-most in FBS. And have that type of vulnerability against Lawrence with Amari Rodgers and Cornell Powell at his disposal will be a problem. It's not often that Lawrence can be considered a bargain, but he is on this slate.
Stevie Scott, Indiana ($5,100) vs. Maryland
Scott hasn't had a ton of success on the ground this year, and that's reflected in his $5,100 salary after he was listed at $6,875, on average, in his first four games. However, he's had plenty of volume and now he gets arguably his most favorable matchup of the season. Scott has 95 carries through five games and could now push for 20 carries against a Maryland defense that surrenders 227 rushing yards per game and could be rusty after a lengthy layoff. Even if Scott is averaging just 3.42 YPC this season, his volume and this matchup will be more than enough to help him return value.
Master Teague, Ohio State ($7,700) at Illinois
What Teague has accomplished this season after injuring his Achilles in spring practice is remarkable. He has played in every game for the Buckeyes and fended off a talented transfer in Trey Sermon to become the leader of the backfield. Teague is up to 73 carries for 380 and six touchdowns through four outings.
He gets to take on an Illinois defense that is woefully overmatched in this spot. The Illini allow 193 rushing yards per game. The only issue with Teague in this spot is volume. While I don't expect him to see fewer than 10 carries or anything, a workload like the ones he had against Penn State (23 carries) or Indiana (26) is unnecessary in this spot. However, his explosiveness could tick up in a big way against this Illinois defense.
Zonovan Knight, North Carolina State ($6,900) at Syracuse
Syracuse has one of the most vulnerable run defenses on the slate, checking in as one of three teams on the slate allowing over 200 rushing yards per game. Knight, meanwhile, is the tip of the spear in the North Carolina State backfield with 113 carries for 641 yards and seven touchdowns. Now, Knight has been somewhat matchup dependent this season with five games of fewer than 15.0 DK points. But in plus-matchups, Knight has been a strong producer. He has five games with over 90 rushing yards and has scored in three straight. He'll push for ~15 carries against a leaky Syracuse defense, and even though his ceiling isn't all that high, he's got a sturdy floor and a favorable matchup.
Jalen Mitchell, Louisville ($5,200) at Boston College
Javian Hawkins' decision to opt out the rest of the season has created an opportunity for Mitchell to produce in the Louisville backfield. He led the Cardinals in carries (11) in the first game without Hawkins and answered with 46 yards and a touchdown. Mitchell packs some serious punch at 5-foot-10 and 221 pounds, making him a go-to option at the goal line. The matchup isn't prohibitive either as Boston College's defense is middle of the road against the run among teams on this slate. Mitchell profiles as a strong mid-tier option at running back Saturday.
Jahan Dotson, Penn State ($6,500) at Michigan
It's been a nightmare season for Penn State but Dotson has been dominant in spite of that. He averages 10 targets per game and converts that into 10.3 YPT, making him a threat to hit the 100-yard bonus every week. Dotson's target share is elite overall, too, checking in at 27 percent.
As for the matchup, Michigan's secondary has not played well this year. The Wolverines give up 274 passing yards per game and 2.4 passing touchdowns as well. This is a great spot for Dotson to continue his stellar season.
Jaden Walley, Mississippi State ($4,900) at Mississippi
The Egg Bowl has the second-highest total on the slate at 69.0, and unlike the Ohio State-Illinois total (71.5), this one should be fairly competitive. With that, we don't have to worry about Mississippi State emptying the bench in the second have like we do with the Buckeyes.
Walley, for his own part, is coming on strong. He is coming off the best performance of his young career against Georgia, catching seven of 10 targets for 115 yards and a score. Maybe I'm buying high here but there's reason to believe that Mississippi State will keep him heavily involved after that kind of outing against a good defense.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss can't stop anyone on defense. The Rebs allow 292 passing yards per game and a slate-worst 8.9 YPA to opposing quarterbacks. Walley is a strong option as a one-off play or as part of a Miss State stack.
Whop Philyor, Indiana ($5,200) vs. Maryland
Ty Fryfogle has established himself as the alpha of the Indiana receiving corps but let's not forget about Philyor. The senior receiver gets a high target volume week-in and week-out with at least six targets in each game and an average of 10.4 TPG, although some of that is skewed by a 21-target outing against Michigan.
Maryland's defense is respectable against the pass but Indiana is still expected to hang nearly 40 points on the Terps, so the expected advantage goes to the Hoosiers. Look for the Indiana passing game to flow through Fryfogle and Philyor, with Philyor checking in as the better per-dollar bargain in a full-point PPR format.