This article is part of our Exploiting the Matchups series.
If you're still reading this column there's a good chance you're preparing for a playoff matchup or else a win-or-go-home regular-season finale. So, I guess this is the part where I recommend "trusting your gut" or "sticking to what worked so far" or "playing your best players". Alternatively, it could be the part where I skip the useless clichés and instead spend my time writing about football players. Let's try Door B.
Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade for Week 14, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:
- Jeff Erickson's value meter
- RotoWire's weekly projections
- RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
- Betting odds
- RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
- Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
- Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
- Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
- Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
- Opponent and teammate injuries
- Target share
- Snap counts
- Defense vs. Position stats
Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.
Note, Pt. 2: References to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.
- Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA at NYJ
Fitzpatrick's numbers over the past seven weeks prorate to