This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was another clunker – I went 5-9, lost my best bet (Vikings) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. Often I lose confidence after a bad run and feel tenuous when making picks until things click again, but this week came easy to me, and some games even moved in my favor from Tuesday morning until now. Not that it portends anything one way or the other, but I feel good about these picks.
I especially like the Bengals, Football Team, Saints, Cardinals and Broncos.
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Giants +4.5 at Eagles
This worked out great because I wanted to take the Giants, but I set the line at 4.5, so when it moved to 3.5 Tuesday morning, I thought I'd be forced to take the Eagles. But now that it's 4.5, I can be a homer without running afoul of my underperforming process. Take the points.
Eagles 23 - 20
Browns -3.5 at Bengals
I made this line only three as the Browns are a mediocre team with a below-average and banged-up quarterback. Take the home dog.
Bengals 24 - 23
Cowboys pick 'em at Football Team
I made this the standard plus three as the Football Team probably has as good an offensive line (low bar to clear) and a better defense. And I'm not sure how much better Andy Dalton is than Kyle Allen. Take the points.
Football Team 26 - 23