Yahoo DFS Football: Week 12 Picks

Yahoo DFS Football: Week 12 Picks

This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Football series.

The Week 12 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET and features 12 games, excluding Monday's Seahawks-Eagles clash and the preceding Houston-Detroit and Washington-Dallas matchups from Thanksgiving, as well as the Steelers-Ravens game that was originally scheduled to be played Thursday before being moved to Sunday and then Tuesday. Even with a few standout offenses and vulnerable defenses off the board, there are still plenty of enticing players to choose from in Week 12. Those players include a superstar quarterback on a hot streak, a standout wide receiver who has been outplaying his valuation for a while now and a consistent tight end in a highly favorable matchup.

TOURNAMENTS (GPP – GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL)

QB: Matt Ryan, ATL vs. LV ($30): Ryan's dreadful 7.28 fantasy points in last week's loss to the Saints will keep plenty of fantasy managers away, but a bounce-back performance could be in the cards at home against a Raiders defense that's allowing 273.6 passing yards per game – fifth most in the league. Julio Jones missed most of the game in New Orleans with a hamstring injury, and Ryan has struggled when he doesn't have both Jones and Calvin Ridley (foot), but both starting wide receivers have been practicing on a limited basis and should be able to give it a go this week. Considering Ryan's averaging over 300 passing yards per game at home and the Raiders have allowed over 300 passing yards in four of their last six, this looks like a nice buy-low opportunity on the veteran quarterback in what's projected to be Sunday's second-highest scoring game (over/under 54 points). 

RB: David Montgomery, CHI at GB ($17): It's hard to trust anybody in a Bears offense that's averaging the second-fewest yards (300.9) and second-fewest points (19.1) per game, plus it's possible the Packers race out to an early lead and force the Bears into a pass-heavy game script. That being said, if you're willing to roll the dice on Montgomery – who's returning from a concussion-related absence – despite those factors, you could be handsomely rewarded here. Green Bay's 11 rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs are fifth most in the league, and three of the four teams that have allowed more played on Thanksgiving. Add in the four receiving scores the Packers have surrendered to the position – not to mention the league-high 551 receiving yards – and you get 15 scrimmage touchdowns. Only the Lions (21) have allowed more scrimmage scores to running backs, and a healthy Montgomery should hold a near monopoly on touches out of Chicago's backfield against the generous Green Bay defense.

WR: Mike Evans, TB at KC ($19): The Chiefs have been stingy against wide receivers, but Evans isn't just any receiver. He's on pace to fall short of 1,000 yards for the first time in his seven-year career but has made up for that lack of yardage with red-zone dominance, as Evans' nine receiving touchdowns are two short of Adam Thielen's league-leading total. Evans has gotten a larger share of quarterback Tom Brady's attention recently, with 20 targets over the past two games and a touchdown in each, yet he still remains quite affordable at just $19.

Other Against-the-Grainers

QB: Derek Carr (LV, $29), Aaron Rodgers (GB, $33), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA, $27)

RB: Derrick Henry (TEN, $29), Kenyan Drake (ARI, $22), Giovani Bernard (CIN, $15)

WR: DeAndre Hopkins (ARI, $27), Tyler Boyd (CIN, $19), DeVante Parker (MIA, $17)

TE: Mike Gesicki (MIA, $13), Tyler Eifert (JAX, $10)

DST: Green Bay Packers (vs. CHI, $14), Indianapolis Colts (vs. TEN, $18)

CASH GAMES (H2H, 50/50s and DOUBLE UPS)

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes, KC at TB ($37): After a slow start by his lofty standards, Mahomes has picked things up over the past three games, averaging 378.7 passing yards to go with an 11:1 TD:INT. Andy Reid likes to spread the wealth between his rushing and passing attacks, but getting going on the ground won't be easy against a Buccaneers defense that's allowing a league-low 73.0 rushing yards per game, which should lead to a more pass-heavy game plan against Tampa Bay's middling secondary. There should be plenty of points to go around considering this game has Sunday's highest over/under at 56 points, so all signs point to Mahomes staying red hot here.

RUNNING BACK

Nick Chubb, CLE at JAX ($30): Chubb has hit the ground running since returning from a sprained MCL, rushing 39 times for 240 yards (6.2 YPC) and a touchdown in his two games back. While Kareem Hunt has been more involved as a receiver and taken some of the goal-line work, Chubb would have had another touchdown if he didn't kneel on the one-yard line to run out the clock, and he's likely to get plenty of opportunities on the ground in the run-heavy Browns offense against a Jaguars team that has lost nine consecutive games and is allowing 129.1 rushing yards per game.

Wayne Gallman, NYG at CIN ($18): Gallman has thrived as New York's lead back over the past four games, finishing with at least 13 touches and a touchdown in each game while totaling 199 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 54 carries along with eight catches for 54 yards on 10 targets. New York will likely be playing from ahead against a Bengals team that will be without Joe Burrow (knee) for the rest of the season, and Gallman should find plenty of running room against a Cincinnati defense that has allowed 1,206 rushing yards to running backs, which is the most among the teams in action Sunday.

WIDE RECEIVER

DJ Moore, CAR at MIN ($20): Moore played second fiddle to offseason acquisition Robby Anderson earlier in the season but has since reestablished himself as the No. 1 receiver in Carolina. The 2018 first-round pick out of Maryland has topped 90 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, finishing with more yards than Anderson five times in that stretch while scoring four touchdowns to Anderson's zero. Despite that vastly superior recent production, Moore still comes in $1 cheaper than Anderson as his team gets set to face a Vikings secondary that has allowed 17 touchdowns to wide receivers – second most in the league.

Michael Thomas, NO at DEN ($28): Thomas finally looked like himself in last week's win over the Falcons, catching nine of 12 targets for 104 yards. Now that arguably the best receiver in the league seems to have recovered from his ankle injury, he's a bargain against a Broncos defense that has allowed 12 touchdowns to wide receivers, including a touchdown to the opposition's No. 1 wideout in four of the last five games. Considering Thomas' breakout performance came with Taysom Hill under center, catching passes from Hill again shouldn't keep Thomas from showing off the skills that led him to 149 catches for 1,725 yards and nine touchdowns last season.

Nelson Agholor, LV at ATL ($17): Agholor has established himself as the Raiders' top wide receiver, finding the end zone in five of the last seven games. He tied his season high with nine targets and caught a season-high six passes for 88 yards and a score in last week's high-scoring loss to the Chiefs. Agholor's primed to maintain the momentum from that performance and should remain busy against a Falcons defense that's allowing over 300 passing yards per game. 

TIGHT END

Hunter Henry, LAC at BUF ($18): Henry's consistent role in the Chargers' offense gives him a high floor, while this matchup against a Bills defense that has struggled to defend tight ends raises his ceiling. He comes into this game riding a two-game touchdown streak and has been targeted at least seven times in seven of 10 games while catching four-plus passes eight times. Meanwhile, the Bills have allowed the most receptions (59), second-most yards (642) and sixth-most touchdowns (six) to tight ends, and they are just four yards and two touchdowns away from ranking the worst across the board at defending the position. Rostering Travis Kelce ($33) or Darren Waller ($25) would be nice, but Henry should at least approach their production while granting you much more cap space to use on other positions.

DEFENSE

Los Angeles Rams, (LAR vs. SF, $17): Aaron Donald and company struggled in San Francisco earlier this season, but Los Angeles' defense has been stellar since. In the subsequent four games, the Rams have allowed just 16.5 points per game while racking up 12 sacks, six interceptions and three fumble recoveries. Injuries have further ravaged the 49ers since that meeting, as they'll be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and star tight end George Kittle (foot) among others, setting up a juicy home matchup for the Rams' stout defensive unit.

Honorable Mentions

QB: Cam Newton (NE, $29), Josh Allen (BUF, $39), Taysom Hill (NO, $28)

RB: Dalvin Cook (MIN, $42), Brian Hill (ATL, $15), James White (NE, $16)

WR: Stefon Diggs (BUF, $28), Tyreek Hill (KC, $30), Michael Pittman (IND, $20)

TE: Darren Waller (LV, $25), Evan Engram (NYG, $19)

DST: Cleveland Browns (at JAX, $15), New York Giants (at CIN, $21)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Sasha Yodashkin plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: Youngsash, DraftKings: Yashdogg,Yahoo: Sasha, Fanball: Yashdogg.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Sasha Yodashkin
Sasha has been contributing NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB and Tennis content to RotoWire since 2015, with an emphasis on DFS. He is a huge New York sports fan who has been playing fantasy sports since middle school.
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