OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 13 Picks

OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 13 Picks

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

OwnersBox's SuperFlex contests provide participants with a chance to roster up to two quarterbacks per lineup, opening up the opportunity for major scoring boosts and a more entertaining fantasy sweat overall.

Each week of the NFL regular season, we'll break down appealing candidates in the main Sunday slate for OwnersBox's NFL SuperFlex DFS contests.  

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, LAR vs. JAC ($7,600)

Stafford was able to score 27 fantasy points in a losing effort against the Packers in Week 12, his ninth tally of at least 20 fantasy points this season. The veteran gunslinger has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four of the last six games, and although Stafford is reportedly playing with multiple injuries, he has an appealing matchup at home in Week 13. The Jaguars have been playing very well in the secondary in recent games, but they're still yielding 262.6 passing yards per road game on an AFC-high 71.4 percent completion rate in that split. Jacksonville is also tied with several teams for second-highest explosive pass play rate allowed (11%), furthering Stafford's case in a game the Rams offense could use to really get itself right for the stretch run.  

Kirk Cousins, MIN at DET ($6,800)

Cousins came through nicely as a Week 12 recommendation with 19 fantasy points, and that outing came on the heels of a three-game stretch where he scored 21 to 33 fantasy points. The veteran quarterback now has a 23:3 TD:INT, and Cousins will be facing a Lions team that he threw for 275 yards against back in Week 5. Detroit is giving up 252.4 passing yards per home game, an 11 percent explosive pass play rate while allowing the most yards per completion (14.2) of any team on its home field – all numbers that further support Cousins' case at what a reasonable mid-level salary.

ALSO CONSIDER: Tom Brady, TB at ATL ($7,800)

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor, IND at HOU ($8,100)

Taylor found a way to produce against the Buccaneers' brick wall of a run defense in Week 12, posting 19 fantasy points. The All-World running back had scored 20 to 52 fantasy points in seven of the previous eight games, and his rushing touchdown against Tampa Bay extended his streak with at least one score to nine games. The Texans already gave up a 14-145-2 line on the ground to Taylor back in Week 6, and Houston checks in allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game, as well as the fourth-highest explosive rush play rate (13%). Taylor's upside continues to be the highest of any back in the league, and Taylor should see plenty of work in a game that Indy could have control of in the second half.

Joe Mixon, CIN vs. LAC ($7,000)

Mixon is undoubtedly going to find himself in plenty of lineups, but the matchup is worth eating the chalk on and differentiating elsewhere. The Chargers have been the league's worst road run defense by far, allowing an NFL-high 164.4 rushing yards per away contest at 4.9 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Mixon has been on an absolute tear, scoring 24 to 32 fantasy points over the last four games while compiling 487 total yards and eight total touchdowns during that span. Mixon has multiple receptions in three of the last four games, adding another dimension to his fantasy production.

ALSO CONSIDER: Leonard Fournette, TB at ATL ($6,500)

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, LAR vs. JAC ($7,700)

Kupp "slumped" to 18 fantasy points in Week 12 against the Packers, after scoring between 20 to 34 fantasy points in the previous five contests. The fifth-year wideout has seen double-digit targets in all but one game, giving him the safest floor of any receiver in the league this season. The Jaguars' weaknesses against the pass were already detailed in Stafford's entry, and in addition to the numbers cited there, it's worth noting Jacksonville has given up 10.8 yards per completion and has allowed passer ratings north of 90 in four of the six passing windows.

Chris Godwin, TB at ATL ($6,500)

It's a weekly coin flip between Mike Evans and Godwin, but it's the latter receiver that's actually seen a more consistent target share. Godwin has logged at least five looks and as many as 14 in every contest, and he produced a 4-62-1 line (16 fantasy points) in his previous encounter with the Falcons this season. Atlanta has been stingy against the pass at home, but the Falcons have allowed the third-most receiving touchdowns to wideouts (15) and has allowed passer ratings north of 100 in all three short/intermediate passing windows, areas of the field where Godwin has seen 72 of his 88 targets this season.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF at SEA ($5,600)

Aiyuk should be in for an elevated workload Sunday with Deebo Samuel unavailable and his 8.4 targets per game up for grabs. Aiyuk has already seen a nice uptick in production of late, scoring 11 to 21 fantasy points in four of the last five games while seeing between six and eight targets in those contests. The Seahawks enter Week 13 allowing the third-most passing yards per home game (286.6) and have faced the sixth-most wide receiver targets in the league (245). The second-year wideout should be busy this weekend.

ALSO CONSIDER: Justin Jefferson, MIN at DET ($7,500)

Tight Ends

George Kittle, SF at SEA ($5,900)

Kittle is very much in consideration for both his own talent and due to Samuel's absence. The talented tight end faces a Seahawks defense that's already giving up the sixth-most receptions (62) to his position, along with five touchdowns for the season. Kittle had scored 13 to 19 fantasy points in a three-game stretch prior to a two-point dud versus the Vikings in Week 12. With his salary lower on average this season than in prior years due to what would be considered relatively underwhelming production (by his standards), Kittle makes for an intriguing tournament play in a game against a defense that's vulnerable in areas of the field where he thrives, the three short/intermediate passing windows.

Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. TB ($5,100)

Pitts is another gifted player who hasn't been able to consistently generate production commensurate with his talent, but one that could also pay nice dividends on a modest salary in Week 13. The Buccaneers face an NFL-high 67.3 percent pass play percentage due to their virtually impenetrable run defense, and Tampa has allowed the third-most receptions (71) to tight ends as well. Tampa Bay conceded a 5-73 line on six targets to Pitts the first time they saw him back in Week 2, and given Calvin Ridley's ongoing absence and Atlanta's need to remain aggressive while facing Tom Brady and his offense, the rookie TE should be in for another busy day.

ALSO CONSIDER: Rob Gronkowski, TB at ATL ($5,900)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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