2022 World Cup Preview: Group G Picks and Analysis | Brazil Look to Coast Early

2022 World Cup Preview: Group G Picks and Analysis | Brazil Look to Coast Early

This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.

Our 2022 World Cup betting previews

Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

Summer Preview Show

Brazil have advanced out of the group stage every tournament since 1966, including making three-straight finals, and winning thrice in 1994, 1998, 2002. Despite their long-term success, the Brazil faithful continue to smart from the 2014 failure to win the World Cup on home soil. Of that squad, Thiago Silva, Dani Alves, Fred and Neymar are the most likely to remain for this tournament. But there are motivated youngsters like Richarlison, Gabriel Jesus and Raphinha, who can all provide a spark when needed. All that to say, this is a deep squad with a ton of talent. Looking at the tournament odds, Brazil are favored to win the whole thing at +450.

In terms of world ranking, Switzerland (15) are ahead of Serbia (25), which is why they were in Pot 2 for the draw, but ultimately, making the knockout round will probably come down to the Dec. 2 clash between those two sides. Serbia haven't made it out of the group since 1998, while Switzerland have advanced to the Round of 16 in three of the last four competitions, led by the likes of Xherdan Shaqiri and Granit Xhaka, both of whom figure to be in the squad. For their part, Serbia will have to rely heavily on all-time leading scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic

As for Cameroon, they're back in the World Cup after missing 2018. That said, they failed to get a point in both 2010 and 2014. Lyon's Karl Toko-Ekambi is maybe their most well-known player, as their squad is a fair mix of Ligue 1 and MLS players.

Only England at -320 are a heavier favorite to win their group than Brazil at -220 to win Group G, depending on the sportsbook. It's a relative toss-up between Switzerland and Serbia at +550 and +650, respectively, while Cameroon sit as the longshot at +1300.

GROUP G WINNER

It's hard to bet anyone other than Brazil to win the group, as they are heavy favorites for good reason. Instead of taking them to win Group G, you'd almost be better getting some value from taking them to win the 2022 World Cup at +450 or to reach the final at +200.

Rather than looking at Brazil, it might make more sense to try and get some value by taking either Switzerland or Serbia to advance out of the group, unless you really think Cameroon can pull an upset.

Switzerland to Advance +100

Serbia and Switzerland both have a solid combination of youth and experience, and while Switzerland are the favorite to advance and will return even money, an argument could be made to look at Serbia to get slightly more value at +130. Having an experienced goalkeeper in Yann Sommer tips the scales in favor of Switzerland in my opinion, but it's a fairly even matchup of European countries.

BEST MATCHUP TO BET

Nov. 28, Brazil vs Switzerland, Stadium 974, Doha

If there is a path for Switzerland to take home the group, it has to be getting three points in an upset over Brazil. It's a pretty high line for Switzerland at +550 to win it, though you could take the draw out of play and look at the Draw No Bet at +390. Both of these options might be worth a longshot given the return.

If you want to try to get some value out of Brazil it's going to probably be on the spread where you could grab Brazil -1.5 or even -2.5 for +140 and +370, respectively. In the end, I think the value is too strong to not at least consider taking Switzerland instead of worrying about getting multiple goals out of Brazil after they start slow and Neymar hits the post three times in the first half.

Switzerland to beat Brazil +550

Brazil to win and over 1.5 goals -125

The other option is to avoid having to give up too much juice while taking Brazil in this contest in a parlay. There is little chance this game ends with only one goal regardless of the winner, so with this bet you can still get Brazil to win. If you want to double down on Switzerland in a similar spot, their same-game parlay to win with over 1.5 goals is +850 which is a nice return.

I think Brazil will likely take this contest, but there is so much value in taking Switzerland that it makes sense to at least try to get a piece if there is an upset, though there are plenty of ways to get value on Brazil if you get creative, especially goalscorer props when those become available. It could be worth stacking a bunch of players to score, including Richarlison and Gabriel Jesus, while fading Neymar who likely won't return plus value. 

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only Soccer Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire Soccer fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
AJ Scholz
Co-Host of PuckCast with Statsman and AJ and unabashed Penguins fan.
EPL Betting Podcast: Are Tottenham worth a bet at Chelsea? | Kits & Wagers
EPL Betting Podcast: Are Tottenham worth a bet at Chelsea? | Kits & Wagers
Premier League Best Bets: Picks, Parlays and Odds for EPL Saturday, Aug. 13
Premier League Best Bets: Picks, Parlays and Odds for EPL Saturday, Aug. 13
Fantrax Premier League Player Rankings: Gameweek 2
Fantrax Premier League Player Rankings: Gameweek 2
Fantasy Premier League Player Rankings: Gameweek 2
Fantasy Premier League Player Rankings: Gameweek 2
Fantrax Finds: Waiver Wire Pickups For Gameweek 2
Fantrax Finds: Waiver Wire Pickups For Gameweek 2
FanDuel DFS Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Targets
FanDuel DFS Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Targets